Current research topics and research questions
My research engages three prominent means of elite influence -- televised advertising, political endorsements and election administration policies -- that shape the composition of the electorate and alter voters' attitudes. I examine how elites influence citizens and, in research published in the Journal of Politics, the broader interplay between citizens and elites.
Citizens Influencing Elite Behavior
Dropp, Kyle. 2012. "Electoral security and the provision of constituent service" The Journal of Politics. 74(1): 220-234. (with Zac Peskowitz)
We demonstrate that electoral considerations structure how legislators allocate their time in office. We sent legislators a series of requests via email and establish that officeholders in competitive districts devote more time to providing constituent service. Their counterparts in safe districts, on the other hand, prioritize broader policy efforts such as bill co-sponsorships. With our instrumental variables approach and new measurement technique, we confirm theoretical models describ- ing legislators as either focused on broader policy work or particularistic goods and find strong evidence that district competitiveness constrains legislators’ behavior in office.
We demonstrate that electoral considerations structure how legislators allocate their time in office. We sent legislators a series of requests via email and establish that officeholders in competitive districts devote more time to providing constituent service. Their counterparts in safe districts, on the other hand, prioritize broader policy efforts such as bill co-sponsorships. With our instrumental variables approach and new measurement technique, we confirm theoretical models describ- ing legislators as either focused on broader policy work or particularistic goods and find strong evidence that district competitiveness constrains legislators’ behavior in office.
Strategic Elite Rhetoric - Political Endorsements
"The Impact of Media Endorsements in Legislative Elections" (w/ Chris Warshaw)
We investigate how political endorsements influence election outcomes. Through two novel survey-based experiments, we establish that an endorsement's impact depends on the level of ideological congruence between the voter and the source of the endorsement. This finding has implications for the burgeoning literatures on elite cues, voting behavior and representation. Voters reward Congressional candidates when they perceive that an endorsing newspaper is ideologically similar to their preferences but punish endorsed candidates when they perceive that the source is ideologically distal.
We combine these laboratory experiments with a regression discontinuity design utilizing vote intentions and actual newspaper endorsements from the past four election cycles. We collected newspaper endorsements for President, U.S. Senate and Governor from the top 200 newspapers by circulation in the United States and linked this with a ZIP Code level file noting newspaper circulation by ZIP and about 150,000 individual level responses from the 2006 – 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies. These survey responses contain vote intention for the various offices.
We measure how long before (or after) the newspaper endorsement the CCES interview was conducted, and then administer models that compare candidate support in the days immediately before and after an endorsement, controlling for many factors such as proximity to Election Day. Our analysis indicates newspaper endorsements increase support for Presidential, Senate and Gubernatorial candidates by between two and four percentage points.
Our findings suggest that candidates should seek to obtain endorsements from newspapers that are ideologically similar to the median voter in their district. In contrast, it is not in the best interest of candidates to receive an endorsement from a newspaper that is ideologically distinct from the median voter.
"Elite Military Support and the Use of Force" (w/ Jim Golby & Peter Feaver)
How do elites influence Americans' foreign policy views? We find that the military is a powerful shaper of Americans' support for use of force abroad. Through a series of large, nationally representative survey experiments, we establish that military leaders' influence on the public is largest when it opposes (rather than supports) interventions abroad. This study advances our understanding of how individuals form opinions about complex subjects where they have little substantive knowledge, how voters use elite signals and how the military influences politics and policy in a democracy.
"Military Campaigns: Veterans' Endorsements and Presidential Elections" (w/ Golby and Feaver)
We present evidence drawn from a survey experiment that military endorsements affect citizens’ views of candidates in the 2012 presidential campaign. We find that the military exerts a strong impact on political independents and voters who report low levels of foreign policy interest. Consistent with observational studies, we find that unexpected endorsements, such as military members endorsing Barack Obama, exert more positive influence than indications of support for Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate.
We investigate how political endorsements influence election outcomes. Through two novel survey-based experiments, we establish that an endorsement's impact depends on the level of ideological congruence between the voter and the source of the endorsement. This finding has implications for the burgeoning literatures on elite cues, voting behavior and representation. Voters reward Congressional candidates when they perceive that an endorsing newspaper is ideologically similar to their preferences but punish endorsed candidates when they perceive that the source is ideologically distal.
We combine these laboratory experiments with a regression discontinuity design utilizing vote intentions and actual newspaper endorsements from the past four election cycles. We collected newspaper endorsements for President, U.S. Senate and Governor from the top 200 newspapers by circulation in the United States and linked this with a ZIP Code level file noting newspaper circulation by ZIP and about 150,000 individual level responses from the 2006 – 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies. These survey responses contain vote intention for the various offices.
We measure how long before (or after) the newspaper endorsement the CCES interview was conducted, and then administer models that compare candidate support in the days immediately before and after an endorsement, controlling for many factors such as proximity to Election Day. Our analysis indicates newspaper endorsements increase support for Presidential, Senate and Gubernatorial candidates by between two and four percentage points.
Our findings suggest that candidates should seek to obtain endorsements from newspapers that are ideologically similar to the median voter in their district. In contrast, it is not in the best interest of candidates to receive an endorsement from a newspaper that is ideologically distinct from the median voter.
"Elite Military Support and the Use of Force" (w/ Jim Golby & Peter Feaver)
How do elites influence Americans' foreign policy views? We find that the military is a powerful shaper of Americans' support for use of force abroad. Through a series of large, nationally representative survey experiments, we establish that military leaders' influence on the public is largest when it opposes (rather than supports) interventions abroad. This study advances our understanding of how individuals form opinions about complex subjects where they have little substantive knowledge, how voters use elite signals and how the military influences politics and policy in a democracy.
"Military Campaigns: Veterans' Endorsements and Presidential Elections" (w/ Golby and Feaver)
We present evidence drawn from a survey experiment that military endorsements affect citizens’ views of candidates in the 2012 presidential campaign. We find that the military exerts a strong impact on political independents and voters who report low levels of foreign policy interest. Consistent with observational studies, we find that unexpected endorsements, such as military members endorsing Barack Obama, exert more positive influence than indications of support for Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate.
Strategic Elite Rhetoric - Televised Advertising
"Televised Political Ads and Voter Turnout: A theory of asymmetric partisan mobilization" (w/ Jowei Chen)
We test whether the partisan balance of Democratic and Republican political advertisements aired locally affects voter turnout. We develop a theory building upon psychological research on decision-making and demonstrate that Democratic presidential ads in 2008 increased Democratic turnout and decreased Republican turnout, while GOP-sponsored presidential ads stimulated Republican turnout and demobilized Democrats. We assembled a first-of-its-kind time-series precinct-level dataset and leverage individual level data from the 2004 National Annenberg Election Study to demonstrate that the puzzle of null and mixed findings in previous studies can be explained by mobilization of some voter subgroups and demobilization among others.
"Televised political advertising and affective polarization" (w/ Shanto Iyengar)
Exposure to televised political advertising polarizes partisans' views of party leaders, presidential candidates and even people who affiliate with the opposite party. We administered a 1,200 person study on YouGov in late April / May 2012 where respondents viewed 0, 1 or 3 negative political advertisements, used dial-tests and answered an extensive post-test questionnaire. We find that respondents exposed to political messages (compared with the control group) are more likely to take extreme positions when evaluating party leaders, the major political parties and even average Americans who affiliate with the opposite political party.
"The impact of political advertising on evaluations of product advertising" (w/ Shanto Iyengar)
We conduct a series of controlled experiments to determine whether partisan political advertisements contaminate the effect of product ads, a question with implications for the $59 billion televised advertising industry. We randomly assigned individuals to view a product advertisement in tandem with two positive political ads, two negative ads or two product ads with no political content. We measure potential spillover effects using real-time dial tests and a post-test questionnaire battery. We build on psychological theory and show that positive political advertisements violate low expectations of political messages, leading to an experimentally induced positive mood. Consistent with our theory, we find that exposure to positive political advertisements improves product purchase intention relative to the control condition. Meanwhile, exposure to negative advertisements reduces evaluations of the product ad's effectiveness but does not affect overall product purchase intentions.
"Televised political advertising and partisans' beliefs on purely factual matters" (w/ Jowei Chen)
We run a controlled experiment where we expose partisans to either zero or four political advertisements with no issue-based content and then ask respondents a series of questions about factual matters. Compared with partisans who see no ads, partisans exposed to political messages are more likely to take extreme positions on key policy issues and less likely to provide the factually correct answer on the following items: which Presidential Administration passed the payroll tax cut, under which administration have more troops died in Afghanistan, did the economy shrink in the past quarter and did Mitt Romney export jobs at Bain? These effects are evident across respondents in both political parties but are particularly strong among Republicans.
We test whether the partisan balance of Democratic and Republican political advertisements aired locally affects voter turnout. We develop a theory building upon psychological research on decision-making and demonstrate that Democratic presidential ads in 2008 increased Democratic turnout and decreased Republican turnout, while GOP-sponsored presidential ads stimulated Republican turnout and demobilized Democrats. We assembled a first-of-its-kind time-series precinct-level dataset and leverage individual level data from the 2004 National Annenberg Election Study to demonstrate that the puzzle of null and mixed findings in previous studies can be explained by mobilization of some voter subgroups and demobilization among others.
"Televised political advertising and affective polarization" (w/ Shanto Iyengar)
Exposure to televised political advertising polarizes partisans' views of party leaders, presidential candidates and even people who affiliate with the opposite party. We administered a 1,200 person study on YouGov in late April / May 2012 where respondents viewed 0, 1 or 3 negative political advertisements, used dial-tests and answered an extensive post-test questionnaire. We find that respondents exposed to political messages (compared with the control group) are more likely to take extreme positions when evaluating party leaders, the major political parties and even average Americans who affiliate with the opposite political party.
"The impact of political advertising on evaluations of product advertising" (w/ Shanto Iyengar)
We conduct a series of controlled experiments to determine whether partisan political advertisements contaminate the effect of product ads, a question with implications for the $59 billion televised advertising industry. We randomly assigned individuals to view a product advertisement in tandem with two positive political ads, two negative ads or two product ads with no political content. We measure potential spillover effects using real-time dial tests and a post-test questionnaire battery. We build on psychological theory and show that positive political advertisements violate low expectations of political messages, leading to an experimentally induced positive mood. Consistent with our theory, we find that exposure to positive political advertisements improves product purchase intention relative to the control condition. Meanwhile, exposure to negative advertisements reduces evaluations of the product ad's effectiveness but does not affect overall product purchase intentions.
"Televised political advertising and partisans' beliefs on purely factual matters" (w/ Jowei Chen)
We run a controlled experiment where we expose partisans to either zero or four political advertisements with no issue-based content and then ask respondents a series of questions about factual matters. Compared with partisans who see no ads, partisans exposed to political messages are more likely to take extreme positions on key policy issues and less likely to provide the factually correct answer on the following items: which Presidential Administration passed the payroll tax cut, under which administration have more troops died in Afghanistan, did the economy shrink in the past quarter and did Mitt Romney export jobs at Bain? These effects are evident across respondents in both political parties but are particularly strong among Republicans.
Elite Manipulation of Electoral Institutions
"Voter ID Laws and Voter Turnout"
Do Voter Identification statutes reduce voter turnout? This paper demonstrates that the expansion of Voter ID statutes in the past decade has demobilized Democratic- leaning individuals including young adults, renters, the poor and African Americans. I assess millions of individual voting records over five general elections (2004-2012) and document that Voter ID’s demobilizing effects are larger during low salience midterm elections than during presidential contests. The study’s difference-in-differences approach compares voter turnout among voter subgroups in states that underwent Voter ID policy changes with turnout among voters in states with no election law policy change.
"Election Day polling place hours and voter turnout"
Polling place hours on Election Day vary considerably within and between states, affecting the convenience of the voting process and potentially altering voter turnout. This study utilizes a regression discontinuity design to examine a Minnesota statute enabling jurisdictions with fewer than 500 residents to delay opening their polls by three hours on Election Day. Since areas with 500 or slightly more residents are indistinguishable from areas just below the threshold, the RD setup produces a credible estimate of the causal impact of reducing polling place hours of operation on voter turnout. I find that a significant 25% reduction of polling place hours on Election Day exerts no influence on voter turnout during the 2010 midterm elections.
"The determinants of absentee voting" (w/ Jonathan Rodden)
Despite the rising popularity of absentee voting, states rarely report separate absentee and Election Day tallies at the voting precinct level. A select few release both absentee and Election day totals for each precinct. We use these states as test data, modeling absentee voting at the precinct level using district level demographics such as age, race, income and educational attainment, along with county level absentee figure. Comparing these predictions with true data from the test states, we find that static demographic factors and county level absentee balloting strongly predict precinct level absentee turnout.
Do Voter Identification statutes reduce voter turnout? This paper demonstrates that the expansion of Voter ID statutes in the past decade has demobilized Democratic- leaning individuals including young adults, renters, the poor and African Americans. I assess millions of individual voting records over five general elections (2004-2012) and document that Voter ID’s demobilizing effects are larger during low salience midterm elections than during presidential contests. The study’s difference-in-differences approach compares voter turnout among voter subgroups in states that underwent Voter ID policy changes with turnout among voters in states with no election law policy change.
"Election Day polling place hours and voter turnout"
Polling place hours on Election Day vary considerably within and between states, affecting the convenience of the voting process and potentially altering voter turnout. This study utilizes a regression discontinuity design to examine a Minnesota statute enabling jurisdictions with fewer than 500 residents to delay opening their polls by three hours on Election Day. Since areas with 500 or slightly more residents are indistinguishable from areas just below the threshold, the RD setup produces a credible estimate of the causal impact of reducing polling place hours of operation on voter turnout. I find that a significant 25% reduction of polling place hours on Election Day exerts no influence on voter turnout during the 2010 midterm elections.
"The determinants of absentee voting" (w/ Jonathan Rodden)
Despite the rising popularity of absentee voting, states rarely report separate absentee and Election Day tallies at the voting precinct level. A select few release both absentee and Election day totals for each precinct. We use these states as test data, modeling absentee voting at the precinct level using district level demographics such as age, race, income and educational attainment, along with county level absentee figure. Comparing these predictions with true data from the test states, we find that static demographic factors and county level absentee balloting strongly predict precinct level absentee turnout.
